"There are known-knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known-unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown-unknowns. These are things we do not know we don’t know." Donald Rumsfeld.It's rare that I can use a Donald Rumsfeld quote and not feel more than a little dirty, but as quotes go it's a perfect fit for analysing the future of the news industry.
We know only one thing for sure; the next decade is going to produce more change in journalism and the news industry than we have ever seen before, even more than in the last tumultuous decade.
Looking back it's striking to note how different the news industry is today. The landscape has changed dramatically.
In the last 10 years the internet has become so omnipresent that sometimes it's hard to believe that Google was only founded in 1998: Wikipedia in 2001: YouTube in 2005. All are now tools that many journalists find indispensable, although there are obvious dangers inherent in their overuse.
Quality news publications like the Irish Times, The Guardian and many other found this out the hard way when Shane Fitzgerald proved the fallibility of Wikipedia as a source and the danger of journalists who don't double check their sources.
The Sociology student fabricated part of the composers Maurice Jarre's biography on Wikipedia and despite Wikipedia amending it twice, it was published in newspapers from Ireland to India.
"One could say my life itself has been one long soundtrack. Music was my life, music brought me to life, and music is how I will be remembered long after I leave this life. When I die there will be a final waltz playing in my head that only I can hear."
A beautiful quote, but complete bullshit.
In the last decade newspapers have become news companies and the number of Irish newspapers that don't have an online edition could be counted on one hand.
Those that have resisted the longest, such as the Irish Daily Star are doing surprisingly well circulation-wise, while papers with longstanding online strategies like The Irish Times are losing readership and revenue.
But if the industrial revolution taught us anything it's that being a Luddite is a short term strategy. News organisations and journalists need to embrace the change, but manage it successfully.
Many newspaper managers will claim that the advent of the internet has damaged journalism and there may be some truth in that. But the the truth is far more complex than that and if the internet could be said to have damaged journalism, it can equally be said that it is journalism's only hope of survival.
Quality journalism has been under threat for decades, mostly from the same newspaper managers and owners who are now raging against the 'threat of the internet.'
Philip Knightley's excellent memoir on a life in journalism A Hack's Progress documents much of this decline, which came about as newspapers became publicly quoted companies and the focus went from quality journalism to high profits.
The next logical progress was to get fewer journalists to write more copy, then even fewer journalists to write even more copy. David Simon testified before the Senate commerce committee on the future of journalism that when he was bought out of his position in 1995, long before the internet began to impact news organisations, the Baltimore Sun was making 30% profits.
But the logical step for the papers owners was to let the more experienced journalists go in order to keep overheads down. Smaller wage-roll = Higher profits. The cuts kept coming and before long where 500 men and women once covered Maryland, there are now 140.
It's a story that has resonance in almost every newspaper market. As an article noted in the Sunday Times noted two days ago, journalists in London now write three times more copy than they did just a decade ago and newspapers are essentially being subsidised by the young intern journalists that provide their services for free in order to break into the industry.
No matter how well educated these journalists are, the quality of their journalism must suffer and with it the trust that readers place in their papers. Studies carried out in the US & the UK have shown over the period of the last 10 years, public trust of newspapers and journalists has hit subsequent and repeated 'all time lows.'
As usual, the customer is right. Nick Davies notes in Flat Earth News, research by Cardiff University (and repeated this year by MA students in DCU) show that large swathes of newspapers are unedited, unchecked, unverified PR Press Releases.
And if you trust journalists and newspapers less and less, why keep buying them? If you can get an equally inaccurate news source online for free, why pay?
So while newspaper owners and managers may whine that the internet is killing the industry, the truth is far more complex. David Simon phrased it beautifully:
"When you hear a newspaper executive claiming that his industry is an essential bulwark of society and that it stands threatened by a new technology that is, as of yet, unready to shoulder the same responsibility, you may be inclined to empathize. And indeed, that much is true enough as it goes.
But when that same newspaper executive then goes on to claim that this predicament has occurred through no fault on the industry's part, that they have merely been undone by new technologies, feel free to kick out his teeth. At that point, he's as fraudulent as the most self-aggrandized blogger."
I don't endorse the assault of managers of newspapers organisations (I'm legally obliged to put that in) but I do believe they have a lot to answer for. One of those mistakes has been offering their content free online.
(This isn't an analysis of the business model for news, but it's interesting to note that both News Corp and The New York Times are both going to be charging for their online content in the near future.)
Thankfully these newspaper owners are realising a lesson most others learned during the dot-com bust; giving stuff away for free is not a business model.
So what is the future of news and where does the future of journalism lie? One lesson that journalists and owners are going to need to learn fast is that "Being a great newspaper isn't enough in the internet era." John Temple should know a bit on the subject as he was the last managing editor of the Rocky Mountain News.
Newspapers and journalists are going to have to work hard to regain the trust of readers and this is going to require a lot of investment, not just in fancy bells & whistles websites and all that goes Twitter, but in quality journalists that can work across at least a few mediums.
There are a few signs of this happening in the Irish market, though not enough. The blogs on the irishtimes.com website, especially the politics blogs, are a fantastic example of what happens when well trained, experienced journalists provide excellent online content that complements the main paper.
But more and more newspapers, TV stations journalists need to realise that merely being in print or on TV is no longer enough.
On the TV front Irish news stations have made some inroads. The RTE iPlayer and TV3 player are both useful means to catch viewers who have missed an episode of a favourite show. But few RTE shows promote the option to view the show online and there is very little interaction with other multimedia options.
News shows such as Primetime need to drive viewers to their website for online discussion of the topics they have just viewed on TV and if necessary, the presenters or journalists who produced a particular segment need to interact with their viewers.
By getting viewers to debate topics on a Primetime forum, watch previews for upcoming shows and rewarding them with unique and extended content (interviews for instance) the show could make itself relevant to a generation which currently pays it no heed.
The future of journalism is dependent on correctly managing new mediums, but only if it is utilised as a means of delivering a quality message, which can be trusted by the consumer.
The need for investment in quality journalism and more journalists is needed now more than ever; the internet is simply the news delivery system for that message, in the same way that the printing press was, then radio, then TV.
Nicholas Tomalin of the Sunday Times famously said that "The only qualities essential for real success in journalism are rat-like cunning, a plausible manner, and a little literary ability."
Bar the method of delivery, not much has changed.
